BLM REA COP 2010 Long-Term Potential For Climate Change (HUC5)

This dataset provides an estimate of areas of higher and lower potential for climate change impacts. It is the result of a fuzzy model that integrates changes in precipitation, runoff, potential natural vegetation, and summer and winter temperature. A powerpoint version of the logic model is available at Vector\Change_Agents\Climate\Clm_Long\Documentation\COP_CL_L_logic_model.pptx Normalized summer and winter temperature differences (change in temperature between 1968-1999 and 2045-2060 divided by standard deviation of PRISM temperature for 1968-1999) were converted to fuzzy values and the maximum value extracted. This was averaged with fuzzy values for change in runoff and normalized change in annual precipitation. This value was then combined with areas of potential natural vegetation change and the maximum value extracted to provide the final estimate of potential for climate change impacts. Caution should be exercised in interpreting this dataset. It provides one possible estimate of climate change impacts based on integration of statistically resampled regional climate projections based on boundary conditions from a single global climate model (ECHAM5) compared to current conditions (PRISM). It was not feasible in the scope of this REA to perform this analysis for other available climate projections; however, comparison of results across projections may provide additional insights as to the variability in areas of potential climate impacts. Please note that this dataset does not account for uncertainty of climate projections; this uncertainty is a combination of assumptions inherent in the model construction as well as spatial variability of climate observations over heterogenous landscapes (e.g., sparse weather stations recording past/current climate conditions, unevenly distributed across highly variable terrain). Also note that the impacts of climate change are likely to be highly specific to particular species and ecosystems. The factors integrated into this dataset are intended to provide an overall estimate across species and ecosystems. Additional analyses (outside the scope of this REA) would be required to address species-specific impacts due to climate.