BLM REA COP 2010 Razorback Sucker: Current and Near-Term Status and Long-Term Potential For Change

This dataset presents the current potential distribution of razorback sucker (derived from USFWS designated critical habitat) in the context of current and near-term aquatic intactness, and long-term potential for climate change at the watershed (HUC5) scale. Current aquatic intactness is based on current measures of landscape development, water quality, hydrologic impacts, and road impacts. Near-term intactness includes estimates of urban growth. Long-term potential for climate change is based on absolute changes in runoff, precipitation, temperature, and vegetation change estimated using climate projections (RegCM3 regional climate model based on ECHAM5 boundary conditions) and a biogeography model (MAPSS) for the period 2045-2060. The aquatic intactness estimates provide one set of estimates of the current and near-term habitat conditions of this species; long-term potential for climate change indicates areas that may more strongly affect the status of this species . Many additional factors may affect this species beyond those captured in these models; these species-specific attributes could not be integrated using existing data within the scope of this REA. Local analysis are necessary to provide additional estimates of the current distribution of this species as well as incorporating additional factors that strongly influence the status and distribution of this species. Furthermore, the estimates used in this REA were required by BLM to be at the watershed (HUC5); this produces a landscape-scale averaging effect that may make it difficult to determine more locally specific measures of the condition of this species. Future analysis should be performed at a scale that more closely captures the functional neighborhood of this species, such as finer-grained watersheds (HUC6) or a grid of reporting units (e.g., 4KM grid).