Caribbean Precipitation Change 2050 (Multiple Scenarios)

This map features projected change in precipitation in 2050 from the 1960-1990 average for different scenarios depending on when green house gas emissions peak and how quickly they decline.  This map references global layers for the different scenarios but is focused on the Caribbean.The map includes four different scenarios, with the default shown (Scenario 2.6) showing the least amount of change.  Scenario 2.6 assumes that green house gas emissions peak between 2010 and 2020 followed by a steep decline in emissions.  Other scenarios assume that green house gas emissions peak later in the 21st century or beyond.  You can turn on different layers in map to see different scenarios and click on the map to see the precipitation change projection for a specific location.The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) is one of several model systems used by climate scientists to make projections about climatic conditions such as average temperature and precipitation. The model is run under a variety of scenarios that range from aggressive reductions in green house gas emissions to business-as-usual scenarios where green house gas emissions continue to increase throughout the 21st century.The default scenario used in this map is referred to as Scenario 2.6. The scenario is expected to result in an increase in radiative forcing of 2.6 watts/square meter in 2100. Radiative forcing is a measure of the difference between the amount of energy from the sun striking the earth and the amount of energy escaping to space. Increasing the concentration of green house gases in the atmosphere increases radiative forcing. For more information regarding the use and application of climate models see the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report.