Final Performance Evaluation:
To guide the analysis, a research framework composed of the following five research questions was used: (1) How was the PBS Activity designed and why was it designed this way? (2) How was the activity implemented? (3) Did the activity produce its desired results, and what is the extent of the relevant evidence? (4) What was learned about supporting enterprise development and how sustainable are MCC's efforts in this area? and (5) What are the lessons for MCC and other stakeholders from the design and implementation of this activity?
This analysis relies on a mixed-methods approach, in which Mathematica staff collected and analyzed qualitative and quantitative data from a variety of sources, including administrative records, programmatic reports, and stakeholder interviews. In July 2012, Mathematica staff conducted interviews with MCC, FOMILENIO, Chemonics, and technical service provider staff, as well as members of FOMILENIO's board of directors, an official from the Ministry of Agriculture, representatives from Súper Selectos (a major grocery store chain in El Salvador), PBS participants, and representatives from FOMILENIO-supported enterprises. To formulate primary findings and conclusions, Mathematica staff triangulated qualitative information provided by all interviewed stakeholders and analyzed this information in conjunction with administrative reports and records.
Interim Impact Evaluation:
The Productive Development Project (PDP) was one of three large-scale projects financed under the 2006 compact between the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) and the Government of El Salvador. The main objective of the PDP was to assist in the development of profitable and sustainable business ventures for poor individuals in El Salvador's Northern Zone. Between 2008 and 2012, the PDP used nearly $72 million in allocated funds to serve over 13,500 participants and create more than 11,000 full-time equivalent jobs. The PDP comprised three activities: Production and Business Services (PBS), Investment Support, and Financial Services. The PBS Activity -- the subject of this impact evaluation and the largest of the three activities -- provided technical and material assistance to farmers and small-scale producers to support the Northern Zone's dairy, fruit, horticulture, handicrafts, tourism, forestry, and coffee sectors.
The design for the impact evaluation of the PBS Activity is a randomized rollout design, in which some producers were offered PBS assistance several months before other producers were offered similar assistance. The goal of this design is to attain the highest level of rigor possible without significantly altering existing implementation plans. The evaluation is limited to three value chains: (1) handicrafts, (2) dairy, and (3) horticulture. Among all value chains in the PBS, these three chains were most amenable to random assignment, and were expected to yield impacts in the one-year interim timeline specified for the evaluation.
Treatment groups were offered PBS assistance in the first implementation phase (beginning in late 2009 for handicrafts and mid-2010 in the case of the dairy and horticulture chains) and control groups in the dairy and horticulture chains were offered PBS assistance roughly one year after the treatment group. As over 15,000 individuals had participated in the PBS Activity by August 2012, this evaluation sample of 1,736 individuals (518, 593, and 625 in the dairy, horticulture, and handicrafts chains, respectively) includes only 11 percent of the individuals served under the activity.