Indonesia tsunami hazard

Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Indonesia, cnducted by Geoscience Australia the first nationally consistent probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) for Indonesia. This assessment produces time-independent forecasts of tsunami hazards at the coast using data from tsunami generated by local, regional and distant earthquake sources. The methodology is based on the established monte carlo approach to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and has been adapted to tsunami. We account for sources of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in the analysis through the use of logic trees and sampling probability density functions. For short return periods (100 years) the highest tsunami hazard is the west coast of Sumatra, south coast of Java and the north coast of Papua. For longer return periods (500–2500 years), the tsunami hazard is highest along the Sunda Arc, reflecting the larger maximum magnitudes. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of > 0.5 m at the coast is greater than 10 % for Sumatra, Java, the Sunda islands (Bali, Lombok, Flores, Sumba) and north Papua. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of > 3.0 m, which would cause significant inundation and fatalities, is 1–10 % in Sumatra, Java, Bali, Lombok and north Papua, and 0.1–1 % for north Sulawesi, Seram and Flores. The results of this national-scale hazard assessment provide evidence for disaster managers to prioritise regions for risk mitigation activities and/or more detailed hazard or risk assessment. Wave height at coast has been buffered (to overlap onshore admin boundaries), intersected with SRTM topogrpahy, and converted to hazard levels for use in Think Hazard! This was converted by Audrey Hohmann at BRGM.

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Author World Bank Group
Last Updated April 5, 2023, 03:28 (CDT)
Created April 5, 2023, 03:28 (CDT)