Modeling Avifaunal Responses Executive Summary

Climate models project the rapid warming of boreal and arctic regions of North America. This has led to predictions that boreal forest vegetation and fauna will track these changes and shift northward into the arctic over the next century. We used a comprehensive dataset of avian pointcount surveys from across boreal Canada and Alaska, combined with the best-available interpolated climate data, to develop bioclimatic niche models of current avian distribution and density for 102 native species of forest songbirds. We then used a downscaling of projected climates in future periods (2011– 2040, 2041–2070, 2071–2100) to assess the potential for these species to shift their ranges and increase their abundance across North America’ boreal-arctic transitions zone in response to climate change.

Data and Resources

Field Value
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Groups
  • AmeriGEOSS
  • National Provider
  • North America
Tags
  • academics-scientific-researchers
  • amerigeo
  • amerigeoss
  • biota
  • birds
  • ckan
  • climate-change-impact-assessment-models
  • conservation-ngos
  • federal-resource-managers
  • geo
  • geoss
  • national
  • north-america
  • range-changes
  • united-states
isopen False
license_id notspecified
license_title License not specified
maintainer (Point of Contact); Arctic Landscape Conservation Cooperative (Point of Contact, Publisher)
maintainer_email lccdatasteward@fws.gov
metadata_created 2025-11-22T07:48:00.843153
metadata_modified 2025-11-22T07:48:00.843157
notes Climate models project the rapid warming of boreal and arctic regions of North America. This has led to predictions that boreal forest vegetation and fauna will track these changes and shift northward into the arctic over the next century. We used a comprehensive dataset of avian pointcount surveys from across boreal Canada and Alaska, combined with the best-available interpolated climate data, to develop bioclimatic niche models of current avian distribution and density for 102 native species of forest songbirds. We then used a downscaling of projected climates in future periods (2011– 2040, 2041–2070, 2071–2100) to assess the potential for these species to shift their ranges and increase their abundance across North America’ boreal-arctic transitions zone in response to climate change.
num_resources 5
num_tags 15
title Modeling Avifaunal Responses Executive Summary