An economic analysis (HDM-4/RED) and a performance evaluation (maintenance/transport sector work) of the MCC Senegal Roads Rehabilitation Project.
This EDR covers the following research areas:
0. Project Implementation
a. The methodology for analyzing the extent to which the RRP was implemented as planned
and documentation of any deviations from original plan. There is currently no guidance on where deviations were made from the original plan - further information will be required on this to complete the evaluation.
1. Engineering Analysis and Economic Modelling
a. The methodology for assessing the quality of existing data, and a plan for updating data
collection required for modelling purposes. This determines the road map for how the contractor plans to meet the data-quality level specified (i.e. IQL-2) and what protocol for roadside data collection to include.
b. The methodology for determining the HDM-4 assumptions used to model costs and benefits, including options for improving assumptions (e.g. Comparing past investment
trends against overall asset quality over time).
c. The approach used to review MCC's modelling of the ex-ante performance of the
infrastructure. This review will inform the model's parameters and re-adjust assumptions where needed.
d. The proposed methodology and assumptions to be used to update the project's Economic Rate-of-Return (ERR) calculations.
2. Maintenance
a. A descriptive review and technical assessment of the road authority's maintenance
practices, including a comparison of the road authority's administrative records and reports of maintenance resources, for both elements of RRP.
b. A Political economy analysis of road maintenance and improvement in investment decisions (planning, budgeting, implementation and oversight relative to the road authority's program for the infrastructure).
3. Road Usage Patterns
a. A methodology for estimating traffic composition along each road element. It includes
road-user representative estimates of changes in travel times and transport costs.
b. An assessment of the costs and value of gathering origin- destination (O-D) evidence (O-D
vehicle intercept surveys versus other methods for gathering road usage data on relevant road segments)
c. An assessment of the changes in road usage patterns through retrospective data collection. d. An exploration of changes in the structure of transportation demand, including addressing
whether changes have occurred as a result of MCC road investments or due to unrelated factors.
4. Transportation Market Structure
a. An evaluation of the Senegalese transport market structure and the institutions that
regulate and govern it, including possible noncompetitive market behavior. This includes a literature review summarizing the current evidence for the institutional structure of the Senegalese transport industry, and how it is regulated.
b. An efficiency analysis of the commercial road-transport industry and how changes in vehicle operating costs (VOCs) affect costs and purchaser pricing and how political- economy factors affect cost-savings pass through.