This dataset contains a 30-year rolling average of annual
average minimum and maximum temperatures from the four models and two greenhouse
gas (RCP) scenarios included in the four model ensemble for the years
1950-2099.The year identified is the
mid-point of the 30-year average. eg. The year 2050 includes the values from
2036 to 2065.
The downscaling and selection of models for inclusion in ten
and four model ensembles is described in Pierce
et al. 2018, but summarized here. Thirty two global climate models (GCMs)
were identified to meet the modeling requirements. From those, ten that closely
simulate California’s climate were selected for additional analysis (Table
1, Pierce et al. 2018) and to form a ten model ensemble. From the ten model
ensemble, four models, forming a four model ensemble, were identified to
provide coverage of the range of potential climate outcomes in California. The models in the four model ensemble and
their general climate projection for California are:
HadGEM2-ES (warm/dry),CanESM2 (average), CNRM-CM5 (cooler/wetter), and MIROC5 the model least like the others to
improve coverage of the range of outcomes.
These data were downloaded from Cal-Adapt and prepared for
use within CA Nature by California Natural Resource Agency and ESRI staff.
Cal-Adapt. (2018). LOCA Derived Data [GeoTIFF]. Data derived
from LOCA Downscaled CMIP5 Climate Projections. Cal-Adapt website developed by
University of California at Berkeley’s Geospatial Innovation Facility under
contract with the California Energy Commission. Retrieved from https://cal-adapt.org/
Pierce, D. W., J. F. Kalansky, and D. R. Cayan, (Scripps
Institution of Oceanography). 2018. Climate, Drought, and Sea Level Rise
Scenarios for the Fourth California Climate Assessment. California’s Fourth
Climate Change Assessment, California Energy Commission. Publication Number:
CNRA-CEC-2018-006.