Please note, the updated version of this toolbox is now available for download on this page. The COVID-19-Modeling-v1.zip file contains version 5 of the toolbox with updated documentation. Version 5 of the toolbox updates the CHIME Model v1.1.5
tool. The COVID-19Surge (CDC) model is unchanged in
this version.More information about the toolbox can be found in the toolbox document. More information about the CHIME Model v1.1.5 tool, including the change log, can be found in the tool documentation and this video.More information about the COVID-19Surge (CDC) tool is included in the tool documentation and this video. CHIME Model v1.1.5 ToolVersion 4 - Updated 11 MAY 2020An implementation of Penn Medicine’s COVID-19 Hospital Impact Model for Epidemics (CHIME) for use in ArcGIS Pro 2.3 or later. This tool leverages SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) modeling to assist hospitals, cities, and regions with capacity planning around COVID-19 by providing estimates of daily new admissions and current inpatient hospitalizations (census), ICU admissions, and patients requiring ventilation. Version 4 of this tool is based on CHIME v1.1.5 (2020-05-07). Learn more about how CHIME works.Version 4 contains the following updates:Updated the CHIME tool from CHIME v1.1.2 to CHIME v1.1.5.Added a new parameter called Date of Social Distancing Measures Effect to specify the date when social distancing measures started showing their effects.Added a new parameter called Recovery to specify the number of recovered cases at the start of the model.COVID-19Surge (CDC) ToolVersion 1 - Released 04 MAY 2020An implementation of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) COVID-19Surge for use in ArcGIS Pro 2.3 or later. This tool leverages SIICR (Susceptible, Infected, Infectious, Convalescing, Recovered) modeling to assist hospitals, cities, and regions with capacity planning around COVID-19 by providing estimates of daily new admissions and current inpatient hospitalizations (census), ICU admissions, and patients requiring ventilation based on the extent to which mitigation strategies such as social distancing or shelter-in-place recommendations are implemented. This tool is based on COVID-19Surge. Learn more about how COVID-19Surge works.Potential ApplicationsThe illustration above depicts the outputs of the COVID-19Surge (CDC) tool of the COVID-19 Modeling toolbox.A hospital systems administrator needs a simple model to project the number of patients the hospitals in the network will need to accommodate in the next 90 days due to COVID-19. You know the population served by each hospital, the date and level of current social distancing, the number of people who have recovered, and the number of patients that are currently hospitalized with COVID-19 in each facility. Using your hospital point layer, you run the CHIME Model v1.1.5 tool.An aid agency wants to estimate where and when resources will be required in the counties you serve. You know the population and number of COVID-19 cases today and 14 days ago in each county. You run the COVID-19Surge (CDC) tool using your county polygon data, introducing an Intervention Policy and New Infections Per Case (R0) driven by fields to account for differences in anticipated social distancing policies and effectiveness between counties.A county wants to understand how the lessening or removal of interventions may impact hospital bed availability within the county. You run the CHIME Model v1.1.5 and COVID-19Surge (CDC) tool, checking Add Additional Web App Fields in Summary in both tools. You display the published results from each tool in the Capacity Analysis configurable app so estimates can be compared between models.This toolbox requires any license of ArcGIS Pro 2.3 or higher in order to run. Steps for upgrading ArcGIS Pro can be found here.For questions, comments and support, please visit our COVID-19 GeoNet community.