BLM REA CYR 2013 Current (2010s) Modeled Shrub Cover

Some of the CYR rasters intentionally do not align or have the same extent. These rasters were not snapped to a common raster per the authors' discretion. Please review selected rasters prior to use. These varying alignments are a result of the use of differing source data sets and all products derived from them. We recommend that users snap or align rasters as best suits their own projects. - The ALFRESCO model predicts an expansion of shrub and forest cover in the Central Yukon study area. As an example of landscape-level vegetation change, we present a single ALFRESCO run hand-picked as a “best replicate”—a model run that falls as close as possible to the average of all runs, based on area burned across time. A single model run cannot inform land managers about fire behavior at the micro level; the behavior of each pixel is stochastic. However, the Forest and Shrub Extent examples offer a sense of where and when these changes may occur. In the eastern Brooks Range and Davidson Mountains, shrub tundra is projected to become more common. Notably in the Davidson Mountains, treeline advance is likely to be high in the long-term future. Less change can be seen in the central portions of the Brooks Range, but to the west long-term shrubline and treeline shifts are apparent. ALFRESCO also projects treeline encroachment in both the near-term and long-term future in the Kotzebue Sound Lowlands and Kobuk Ridges and Valleys. Encroachment of high elevation pixels in the more southerly portions of the Central Yukon study area suggests a substantial loss of isolated high-elevation alpine vegetation islands.