Global drought hazard

Water scarcity conditions are expressed in this study by means of the Water Crowding Index (WCI), i.e. the annual water availability per capita (Falkenmark, 1986; 2013). Due to its ease in use and its simplicity in understanding, the WCI consists among the most often used indicators in water scarcity assessments, see for example: Falkenmark, 2013; Hoekstra et al., 2012; Kiguchi et al., 2014; Kummu et al., 2014; Oki & Kanae, 2006; Schewe et al. 2014, Veldkamp et al., 2015a, 2015b; Vorosmarty et al., 2000; Wada et al., 2011a. In line with previous studies, we used ≤1700 m3/capita per year as the threshold for moderate water scarcity conditions. Result found under severe (≤1000 m3/capita per year) and absolute (≤500 m3/capita per year) water scarcity conditions are presented in the supplementary. Population estimates per water province were derived using downscaled socio-economic scenarios from the Shared Socio-Economic pathways (Van Vuuren et al., 2007, 2011). Following Winsemius et al (in review), we used three SSP scenarios to complement the climate projections: (1) SSP1, forms with RCP2p6 the ‘Suitability’ storyline; (2) SSP3, forms with RCP6p0 the ‘Fragmented World storyline; and (3) SSP5, forms with RCP8p5 the ‘Fossil-fuel based development’ storyline. For an extensive discussion on these storylines and the associated SSP and RCP combinations we refer to Winsemius et al. (in review).

Data and Resources

Field Value
Groups
  • AmeriGEOSS
  • Global Provider
Tags
  • AmeriGEO
  • AmeriGEOSS
  • Energy
  • GEO
  • GEOSS
  • Global
  • SDG
  • SDG7
  • World Bank
author World Bank Group
isopen False
license_id CC-BY-4.0
license_title CC-BY-4.0
metadata_created 2025-09-30T20:23:35.627249
metadata_modified 2025-09-30T20:23:35.627254
notes Water scarcity conditions are expressed in this study by means of the Water Crowding Index (WCI), i.e. the annual water availability per capita (Falkenmark, 1986; 2013). Due to its ease in use and its simplicity in understanding, the WCI consists among the most often used indicators in water scarcity assessments, see for example: Falkenmark, 2013; Hoekstra et al., 2012; Kiguchi et al., 2014; Kummu et al., 2014; Oki & Kanae, 2006; Schewe et al. 2014, Veldkamp et al., 2015a, 2015b; Vorosmarty et al., 2000; Wada et al., 2011a. In line with previous studies, we used ≤1700 m3/capita per year as the threshold for moderate water scarcity conditions. Result found under severe (≤1000 m3/capita per year) and absolute (≤500 m3/capita per year) water scarcity conditions are presented in the supplementary. Population estimates per water province were derived using downscaled socio-economic scenarios from the Shared Socio-Economic pathways (Van Vuuren et al., 2007, 2011). Following Winsemius et al (in review), we used three SSP scenarios to complement the climate projections: (1) SSP1, forms with RCP2p6 the ‘Suitability’ storyline; (2) SSP3, forms with RCP6p0 the ‘Fragmented World storyline; and (3) SSP5, forms with RCP8p5 the ‘Fossil-fuel based development’ storyline. For an extensive discussion on these storylines and the associated SSP and RCP combinations we refer to Winsemius et al. (in review).
num_resources 18
num_tags 9
title Global drought hazard