State Class Transition Spreadsheet (Area of Land Transition into Each Class per Year, per Scenario)

This spreadsheet dataset (.csv file) contains annual modeled output of land-use and land-cover change transitions in square kilometers (km2) by specified transition group, scenario, timestep, WEAP hydrologic zone, and 4 sub-regions within the broader California Central Valley, modeled using the LUCAS ST-SIM for the period 2011-2101 across 5 future scenarios. Four of the scenarios were developed as part of the Central Valley Landscape Conservation Project. The 4 original scenarios include a Bad-Business-As-Usual (BBAU; high water availability, poor management), California Dreamin’ (DREAM; high water availability, good management), Central Valley Dustbowl (DUST; low water availability, poor management), and Everyone Equally Miserable (EEM; low water availability, good management). These scenarios represent alternative plausible futures, capturing a range of climate variability, land management activities, and habitat restoration goals. We parameterized our models based on close interpretation of these four scenario narratives to best reflect stakeholder interests, adding a baseline Historical Business-As-Usual scenario (HBAU) for comparison. For these future map projections, the model was initialized in 2011 and run forward on an annual time step to 2101.
The full methods and results of this research are described in detail in the parent manuscript "Integrated modeling of climate and land change impacts on future dynamic waterbird habitat – a case study from California’s Central Valley" (2021).