2070 Extreme Climate Change Scenarios for Water Supply Planning

DWR’s 2070 extreme climate change scenarios enable exploration of the vulnerability of and opportunities for water supply at the potential bounds of future climate change conditions. These scenarios were originally developed as part of the public benefit uncertainty analysis for the California Water Commission’s Water Storage Investment Program (WSIP) (dataset available here: https://data.cnra.ca.gov/dataset/climate-change-projections-wsip-2030-2070).

In 2018, DWR’s Sustainable Groundwater Management Program (SGMP) furnished these extreme scenarios for use by Groundwater Sustainability Agencies (GSAs) (dataset available here: https://data.cnra.ca.gov/dataset/sgma-climate-change-resources). Specifically, downscaled global climate model (GCM) projections were provided for two future climate periods, including a 2030 central tendency, a 2070 central tendency, and two 2070 extreme scenarios to establish a range of projected conditions. Since then, DWR collaborated with Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory to improve the fidelity of these long-range planning datasets, resulting in this update of the 2070 extreme scenarios.

The 2070 extreme scenario update utilizes an improved climate period analysis method to better capture the GCM-projected change in temperature and precipitation. The updated dataset improves downscaled climate change extreme conditions considered for water supply that features both statewide coverage of hydrologic variables and managed flows within California’s inter-regional water conveyance system.

A technical note on the background and results of this process is provided here: https://data.cnra.ca.gov/dataset/extreme-climate-change-scenarios-for-water-supply-planning/resource/f2e1c61a-4946-4863-825f-e6d516b433ed.

Data e Risorse

Campo Valore
accessLevel public
catalog_@context https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema/catalog.jsonld
catalog_conformsTo https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema
catalog_describedBy https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema/catalog.json
identifier e32b2a52-248c-4fd6-b0fe-91f3a398543e
issued 2020-08-05T16:20:45.216539
modified 2020-10-12T18:12:41.071044
publisher California Department of Water Resources
resource-type Dataset
source_datajson_identifier true
source_hash 361ba74fcd071a22b10c6b30b12e14744a1f06f9
source_schema_version 1.1
theme {"Natural Resources",Water}
Gruppi
  • AmeriGEOSS
  • National Provider
  • North America
Tag
  • amerigeo
  • amerigeoss
  • california-department-of-water-resources
  • ckan
  • climate-change
  • geo
  • geoss
  • groundwater
  • hydrology
  • national
  • north-america
  • planning
  • united-states
  • water-supply
isopen False
license_id notspecified
license_title License not specified
maintainer Wyatt Arnold
maintainer_email wyatt.arnold@water.ca.gov
metadata_created 2025-11-21T19:00:08.564999
metadata_modified 2025-11-21T19:00:08.565003
notes DWR’s 2070 extreme climate change scenarios enable exploration of the vulnerability of and opportunities for water supply at the potential bounds of future climate change conditions. These scenarios were originally developed as part of the public benefit uncertainty analysis for the California Water Commission’s Water Storage Investment Program (WSIP) (dataset available here: https://data.cnra.ca.gov/dataset/climate-change-projections-wsip-2030-2070). In 2018, DWR’s Sustainable Groundwater Management Program (SGMP) furnished these extreme scenarios for use by Groundwater Sustainability Agencies (GSAs) (dataset available here: https://data.cnra.ca.gov/dataset/sgma-climate-change-resources). Specifically, downscaled global climate model (GCM) projections were provided for two future climate periods, including a 2030 central tendency, a 2070 central tendency, and two 2070 extreme scenarios to establish a range of projected conditions. **Since then, DWR collaborated with Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory to improve the fidelity of these long-range planning datasets, resulting in this update of the 2070 extreme scenarios.** The 2070 extreme scenario update utilizes an improved climate period analysis method to better capture the GCM-projected change in temperature and precipitation. The updated dataset improves downscaled climate change extreme conditions considered for water supply that features both statewide coverage of hydrologic variables and managed flows within California’s inter-regional water conveyance system. **A technical note on the background and results of this process is provided here**: https://data.cnra.ca.gov/dataset/extreme-climate-change-scenarios-for-water-supply-planning/resource/f2e1c61a-4946-4863-825f-e6d516b433ed.
num_resources 5
num_tags 14
title 2070 Extreme Climate Change Scenarios for Water Supply Planning