Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) [2.5 Deg.]

The Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) is a weather forecast model made up of 21 separate forecasts, or ensemble members. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) started the GEFS to address the nature of uncertainty in weather observations, which are used to initialize weather forecast models. The proverbial butterfly flapping her wings can have a cascading effect leading to wind gusts thousands of miles away. This extreme example illustrates that tiny, unnoticeable differences between reality and what is actually measured can, over time, lead to noticeable differences between what a weather model forecast predicts and reality itself. The GEFS attempts to quantify the amount of uncertainty in a forecast by generating an ensemble of multiple forecasts, each minutely different, or perturbed, from the original observations. With global coverage, GEFS is produced four times a day with weather forecasts going out to 16 days and a 6 hour temporal resolution. This dataset has 2.5 degree horizontal resolution.

Data e Risorse

Campo Valore
accessLevel public
accrualPeriodicity R/P1D
bureauCode {006:48}
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catalog_describedBy https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema/catalog.json
identifier gov.noaa.ncdc:C00692
language {en-US}
modified 2007-10-01
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programCode {006:059}
publisher DOC/NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC > National Climatic Data Center, NESDIS, NOAA, U.S. Department of Commerce (Point of Contact)
resource-type Dataset
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Gruppi
  • AmeriGEOSS
  • National Provider
  • North America
Tag
  • amerigeo
  • amerigeoss
  • atmosphere-air-quality-tropospheric-ozone
  • atmosphere-altitude-geopotential-height
  • atmosphere-altitude-planetary-boundary-layer-height
  • atmosphere-altitude-tropopause
  • atmosphere-atmospheric-pressure-albedo
  • atmosphere-atmospheric-pressure-atmospheric-pressure-measurements
  • atmosphere-atmospheric-pressure-land-cover
  • atmosphere-atmospheric-pressure-pressure-thickness
  • atmosphere-atmospheric-pressure-sea-level-pressure
  • atmosphere-atmospheric-pressure-sea-surface-temperature
  • atmosphere-atmospheric-pressure-soil-moisture-water-content
  • atmosphere-atmospheric-pressure-soil-temperature
  • atmosphere-atmospheric-pressure-surface-pressure
  • atmosphere-atmospheric-radiation-albedo
  • atmosphere-atmospheric-radiation-heat-flux
  • atmosphere-atmospheric-radiation-incoming-solar-radiation
  • atmosphere-atmospheric-radiation-longwave-radiation
  • atmosphere-atmospheric-radiation-outgoing-longwave-radiation
  • atmosphere-atmospheric-radiation-radiative-flux
  • atmosphere-atmospheric-radiation-shortwave-radiation
  • atmosphere-atmospheric-radiation-solar-radiation
  • atmosphere-atmospheric-temperature-air-temperature
  • atmosphere-atmospheric-temperature-atmospheric-stability
  • atmosphere-atmospheric-temperature-boundary-layer-temperature
  • atmosphere-atmospheric-temperature-dew-point-temperature
  • atmosphere-atmospheric-temperature-maximum-minimum-temperature
  • atmosphere-atmospheric-temperature-potential-temperature
  • atmosphere-atmospheric-temperature-skin-temperature
  • atmosphere-atmospheric-temperature-surface-air-temperature
  • atmosphere-atmospheric-temperature-temperature-profiles
  • atmosphere-atmospheric-water-vapor-dew-point-temperature
  • atmosphere-atmospheric-water-vapor-evaporation
  • atmosphere-atmospheric-water-vapor-humidity
  • atmosphere-atmospheric-water-vapor-precipitable-water
  • atmosphere-atmospheric-water-vapor-water-vapor
  • atmosphere-atmospheric-water-vapor-water-vapor-profiles
  • atmosphere-atmospheric-winds-boundary-layer-winds
  • atmosphere-atmospheric-winds-convection
  • atmosphere-atmospheric-winds-surface-winds
  • atmosphere-atmospheric-winds-upper-level-winds
  • atmosphere-atmospheric-winds-vertical-wind-motion
  • atmosphere-atmospheric-winds-vorticity
  • atmosphere-atmospheric-winds-wind-profiles
  • atmosphere-atmospheric-winds-wind-shear
  • atmosphere-precipitation-freezing-rain
  • atmosphere-precipitation-precipitation-amount
  • atmosphere-precipitation-precipitation-rate
  • atmosphere-precipitation-rain
  • atmosphere-precipitation-sleet
  • atmosphere-precipitation-snow
  • ckan
  • doc-noaa-nesdis-ncdc-national-climatic-data-center
  • geo
  • geographic-region-global
  • geoss
  • h-250-km-500-km-or-approximately-2-5-degrees-5-0-degrees
  • land-surface-land-use-land-cover-land-cover
  • land-surface-soils-soil-moisture-water-content
  • land-surface-soils-soil-temperature
  • land-surface-surface-radiative-properties-albedo
  • national
  • nesdis
  • noaa
  • nomads-the-noaa-operational-model-archive-and-distribution-system
  • north-america
  • oceans-ocean-temperature-sea-surface-temperature
  • oceans-sea-ice-sea-ice-concentration
  • terrestrial-hydrosphere-snow-ice-albedo
  • terrestrial-hydrosphere-snow-ice-snow-cover
  • terrestrial-hydrosphere-snow-ice-snow-depth
  • terrestrial-hydrosphere-snow-ice-snow-water-equivalent
  • u-s-department-of-commerce
  • united-states
  • vertical-location-boundary-layer
  • vertical-location-land-surface
  • vertical-location-sea-surface
  • vertical-location-stratosphere
  • vertical-location-troposphere
isopen False
license_id notspecified
license_title License not specified
maintainer DOC/NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC > National Climatic Data Center, NESDIS, NOAA, U.S. Department of Commerce
maintainer_email ncdc.orders@noaa.gov
metadata_created 2025-11-21T12:23:22.585506
metadata_modified 2025-11-21T12:23:22.585510
notes The Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) is a weather forecast model made up of 21 separate forecasts, or ensemble members. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) started the GEFS to address the nature of uncertainty in weather observations, which are used to initialize weather forecast models. The proverbial butterfly flapping her wings can have a cascading effect leading to wind gusts thousands of miles away. This extreme example illustrates that tiny, unnoticeable differences between reality and what is actually measured can, over time, lead to noticeable differences between what a weather model forecast predicts and reality itself. The GEFS attempts to quantify the amount of uncertainty in a forecast by generating an ensemble of multiple forecasts, each minutely different, or perturbed, from the original observations. With global coverage, GEFS is produced four times a day with weather forecasts going out to 16 days and a 6 hour temporal resolution. This dataset has 2.5 degree horizontal resolution.
num_resources 6
num_tags 80
title Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) [2.5 Deg.]