Projected Seafloor Elevation Along the Florida Reef Tract From Deerfield Beach to Homestead, Florida—50 Years From 2014 Based on Historical Rates of Mean Elevation Change

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center conducted research to quantify the combined effect of all constructive and destructive processes on modern coral reef ecosystems by projecting future regional-scale changes in seafloor elevation for several sites along the Florida Reef Tract, Florida (FL) including the shallow seafloor along the coast of Miami, FL. USGS staff used historical bathymetric point data from the 1930's (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Office of Coast Survey, see Yates and others, 2017) and light detection and ranging (lidar)-derived data acquired in 2002 (Brock and others, 2006, 2007) to calculate historical seafloor elevation changes in the Upper Florida Keys (UFK) (Yates and others, 2017). Using those changes in seafloor elevation, annual rates of elevation change were calculated for 13 habitat types found in the UFK reef tract. The annual rate of mean elevation change for each habitat type was applied to a digital elevation model (DEM) extending from Deerfield Beach to Homestead, FL that was modified from the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) Miami coastal DEM (NOAA, 2015) to project future seafloor elevation (from 2014) along the Miami section of the Florida Reef Tract. Grid resolution for the DEM is 1/3 arc second (approximately 10 meters).