Projected Seafloor Elevation Change and Relative Sea Level Rise Near St. Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands 25, 50, 75, and 100 Years from 2014

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center conducted research to quantify bathymetric changes near Buck Island and St. Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands. Changes in seafloor elevation were calculated using historical bathymetric point data from the 1980s (see Yates and others, 2017a) and light detection and ranging (lidar)-derived data acquired in 2014 (NOAA, 2015) using methods outlined in Yates and others (2017b). An elevation change analysis between the 1980s and 2014 data was performed to quantify and map historical impacts to seafloor elevation and to determine elevation-change statistics for 12 habitat types found near St. Croix. Annual elevation-change rates were calculated for each elevation-change data point. Seafloor elevation-change near St. Croix was projected 25, 50, 75 and 100 years from 2014 using these historical annual rates of elevation change. Water depth was projected 25, 50, 75 and 100 years from 2014 using historical rates of annual elevation change plus 2014 local sea level rise (SLR) data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).