Threshold sensitivity of shallow Arctic lakes and sublake permafrost to changing winter climate

Interactions and feedbacks between abundant surface waters and permafrost fundamentally shape lowland Arctic landscapes. Sublake permafrost is maintained when the maximum ice thickness (MIT) exceeds lake depth and mean annual bed temperatures (MABTs) remain below freezing. However, decliningMIT since the 1970s is likely causing talik development below shallow lakes. Here we show high-temperature sensitivity to winter ice growth at the water-sediment interface of shallow lakes based on year-round lake sensor data. Empirical model experiments suggest that shallow (1m depth) lakes have warmed substantially over the last 30years (2.4°C), withMABT above freezing5 of the last 7years.This is incomparison to slower ratesofwarming in deeper (3 m) lakes (0.9°C), with already well-developed taliks. Our findings indicate that permafrost below shallow lakes has already begun crossing a critical thawing threshold approximately 70 years prior to predicted terrestrial permafrost thaw in northern Alaska.

Data e Risorse

Campo Valore
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Gruppi
  • AmeriGEOSS
  • National Provider
  • North America
Tag
  • academics-scientific-researchers
  • amerigeo
  • amerigeoss
  • ckan
  • climatologymeteorologyatmosphere
  • ecosystem-functions
  • federal-resource-managers
  • geo
  • geoscientificinformation
  • geoss
  • inlandwaters
  • lake-ice
  • lakes
  • national
  • north-america
  • permafrost
  • river-ice
  • united-states
  • wetlands
isopen False
license_id notspecified
license_title License not specified
maintainer (Point of Contact); Arctic Landscape Conservation Cooperative (Point of Contact, Publisher)
maintainer_email lccdatasteward@fws.gov
metadata_created 2025-11-21T13:19:08.050797
metadata_modified 2025-11-21T13:19:08.050800
notes Interactions and feedbacks between abundant surface waters and permafrost fundamentally shape lowland Arctic landscapes. Sublake permafrost is maintained when the maximum ice thickness (MIT) exceeds lake depth and mean annual bed temperatures (MABTs) remain below freezing. However, decliningMIT since the 1970s is likely causing talik development below shallow lakes. Here we show high-temperature sensitivity to winter ice growth at the water-sediment interface of shallow lakes based on year-round lake sensor data. Empirical model experiments suggest that shallow (1m depth) lakes have warmed substantially over the last 30years (2.4°C), withMABT above freezing5 of the last 7years.This is incomparison to slower ratesofwarming in deeper (3 m) lakes (0.9°C), with already well-developed taliks. Our findings indicate that permafrost below shallow lakes has already begun crossing a critical thawing threshold approximately 70 years prior to predicted terrestrial permafrost thaw in northern Alaska.
num_resources 44
num_tags 19
title Threshold sensitivity of shallow Arctic lakes and sublake permafrost to changing winter climate